Wimbledon Draw Analysis: The Women

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81096394MW091_The_ChampionsTOP HALF

Q1: If you’ve got the post-Roland Garros (why can’t we play on clay?) blues and are beginning to believe that U.S. tennis is going the way of the Athenian euro, remember, an American has snapped up nine of the last 11 Venus Rosewater Dishes, and there’s no reason to think it can’t happen again in 2010. It’s been a year since Serena Williams bullied her big sis Venus 7-6(3), 6-2 in an All-American final to win her third title at the All England Club, further buffering the argument that she’ll go down as the WTA’s Player of the Decade. If she’s to reach the final again, she’ll first have to survive a quarter that might include an intriguing fourth-round meeting with ’04 titlist Maria Sharpova, and potential matchups again Na Li, three-time quarterfinalist Svetlana Kuznetsova or two-time quarterfinalist Agnieszka Radwanska.

OUR PICK: SERENA WILLIAMS

Q2: She won the Wimbledon junior title in ’06, so you would think Caroline Wozniacki (who professes that grass is her favorite surface) would excel on the AELTC lawns.  The 5-foot-10 Dane has improved her results in each of her three Wimbledon appearances as a WTA pro, posting second-, third- and fourth-round showings, respectively, in ’07, ’08 and ’09.  But the world No. 3 did not get off to a roaring start on the surface this year, having exited the Wimby warmup Aegon International in the first round with a 6-4, 1-6, 6-3 loss to on-the-rise Frenchwoman Aravane Rezai.  Should she get past the likes of Anastasia Pavlyunchekova, Jie Zheng or Victoria Azarenka, she might just earn a rematch with Rezai, who herself is looking at a potential fourth-round faceoff with Roland Garros runner-up Sam Stosur.

OUR PICK: CAROLINE WOZNIACKI

BOTTOM HALF

Q3: We might as well dub this The Belgian Quarter, as countrywomen Kim Clijsters, Justine Henin (a two-time finalist), Yanina Wickmayer and Kristin Flipkens each find themselves in the same quadrant.  Prior to a quarterfinal loss to Azarenka at the pre-Wimbledon Aegon International, Clijsters looked downright dominant coming into the grass season, topping Wickmayer 1 and 1, and Lucie Safarova 1 and 0, and perhaps more importantly proving that she’s shaken off the foot injury that kept the second-career Belgian out of Roland Garros.  It’s hard to know what to expect from someone who hasn’t played Wimbledon since her semifinal showing of ’06 but, as Clijsters proved at the ’09 U.S. Open, some extended time away from the court isn’t always such a bad thing.  Look for a Clijsters vs. Henin clash in the fourth round (all apologies to Nadia Petrova), with the winner advancing to a potential quarterfinal with either Vera Zvonareva or Jelena Jankovic (who faces Brit hopeful Laura Robson in the opening round).

OUR PICK: JUSTINE HENIN

Q4: Is there life after 30?  Venus Williams sure hopes so. A decade and a half into her pro career, the Compton-raised seven-time Slammer is ranked No. 2 and is heading into an event where she historically plays her best tennis.  Sure, she’s lost a step or two and her serve isn’t the air-to-surface missile it used to be, but even if she’s 80 to 90 percent of the player she used to be she’s still a freakish force on grass.  Williams finds herself in a quarter with Roland Garros champ Francesca Schiavone (a Wimbledon quarterfinalist last year), ’07 Wimbledon finalist Marion Bartoli, Alisa Kleybanova and plummeting former No. 1s Ana Ivanovic (who at this point will be lucky to get past Shahar Peer in the first round) and ’09 semifinalist Dinara Safina, but should advance to the semis.

OUR PICK: VENUS WILLIAMS

SEMIS: SERENA WILLIAMS DEF. CAROLINE WOZNIACKI, JUSTINE HENIN DEF. VENUS WILLIAMS

FINAL: SERENA WILLIAMS DEF. JUSTINE HENIN


FIRST ROUNDERS TO WATCH:

SERENA WILLIAMS VS. MICHELLE LARCHER DE BRITO (a guaranteed shriek-fest)

KATERYNA BONDARENKO VS. MARIA SHARAPOVA

IVETA BENASOVA VS. ANASTASIA PAVLYCHENKOVA

SORANA CRISTEA VS. PETRA KVITOVA

MIRJANA LUCIC VS. VICTORIA AZARENKA (where have you been, Mirjana?)

FLAVIA PENNETTA VS. ANABEL MEDINA GARRIGUES

KAROLINE SPREM VS. BETHANIE MATTEK-SANDS

MELANIE OUDIN VS. KRISTEN FLIPKENS

ELENI DANILIDOU VS. ALEKSANDRA WOZNIAK

LAURA ROBSON VS. JELENA JANKOVIC

FRANCESCA SCHIAVONE VS. VERA DUSHEVINA

SHAHAR PEER VS. ANA IVANOVIC

ANNA-LENA GROENEFELD VS DINARA SAFINA

EKATERINA MAKAROVA VS. AGNES SZAVAY

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