July 1, 2006, will go down in infamy as a day the future of the U.S. as a tennis superpower was put into question. A trio of stunning losses left the shaken American camp with the telling reality that little known Shenay Perry was the only American to make the second week at Wimbledon, a tournament once dominated by Americans.

American tennis is not yet in a full-blown crisis, but with the increasing globalization of the sport (there are 14 different nations represented in both the men’s and women’s top 25), the aging of America’s stars and a frightening lull in the player development pipeline, things are not exactly looking up.

There are 12 U.S. women in the top 100, but only two are considered to be up and comers - Perry (who was blown out in the Wimby quaters by Elena Dementieva) and Jamea Jackson, and neither are seen as having more than top-30 potential.The 19-year-old Jackson was the only American teen to bust into the top 100 last year amongst 20 teens overall. Russia has 15 players in the top 100, and only one of those is over the age of 25.

The U.S. men have only eight men in the top 100, and only three are younger than 25. By contrast, Spain has 12 men in the top 100, and four of its top players (Nadal, Ferrer, Verdasco and Almagro) are 24 or younger. U.S. men have won no Slam titles in their last 10 attempts, the worst drought since ‘88.

On that sorry Saturday —June 30th— in London, three former No. 1s flamed.

Andre Agassi tearfully waved goodbye to the locale where he first fulfilled his potential when he fell to the impenetrable Rafael Nadal of Spain. Defending champion Venus Williams, didn’t play nearly as well as she was capable and lost her focus as she fell to hard-hitting Jelena Jankovic. Then two-time Wimbledon finalist Andy Roddick continued his ‘06 slump, as he was out- thought and out-stroked by Scotland’s Andy Murray. And let’s not forget the promising Mardy Fish, who couldn’t shake the flu and retired against Irakli Labadze after losing the first set 6-2.

For some nations, losing four players before the second week isn’t a big deal. But for the U.S., which had won six out of the last seven women’s crowns and had won eight out of the last 14 men’s titles, it was a shocking day. “It sucks, “ Roddick said. “It’s a lot more disappointing when it is here, a place that we’ve all had a lot of success. It is surprising.” The young Scot was simply better than Roddick, playing a far more creative and heady match. Roddick was haunted by the same things that have troubled him all year long. He isn’t returning serve well enough to break consistently, he’s not penetrating enough with his forehand and his backhand is less than mediocre.

As Roddick said later, America is used to enduring the annual ritual of a U.S. funeral dirge press confidence at the French Open, but no one is used to a “what-the-hell-just-happened” post-mortem at Wimbledon on the first Saturday. “There’s just that intangible quality right now, that edge that’s not there,” Roddick said. That’s what I’m searching for. I just got to try to have some faith.”

Roddick’s future is troubling. It’s hard to say this about a 24-year-old, but at this point, he’s looking like a one-Slam wonder, and that’s too bad. He’s a fiery, intense competitor who’s an honest, likeable guy despite his tendency to let his mouth run, but it’s very difficult to see just how he’s going to become a top-5 player again. He’s now ranked No. 11. He may never be an elite player again because really, what’s he bringing to the table that’s so special these days? There are at least 25 other guys on tour who can hit a forehand as well as he can. There are at least 100 with a better backhand, and a good 30 with better volleys. His transition game continues to be suspect, and although he tries very hard on defense, he certainly doesn’t turn points around like Federer, Nadal and Hewitt do, much less Murray.

His serve is still one of the tour’s best, but he’s not locating it well, and the good players are reading him just fine. That’s correctable, but can he really improve anything else by more than 10 percent? And even if he does, will it be good enough to win another Slam?
Venus is searching, too. She doesn’t know why she lost to Jankovic, why she was outstruck by a woman whom she had beaten twice in the last year, why she couldn’t raise her level when it mattered most. “I would have liked to have played better,” she said. “There were definitely some things I could have done better.”

So Williams, who had been to the final five out of the last six years and who won Wimbledon three times, saw her ranking drop to No. 23 and goes into the hard court season with a lot of questions as to why she has been unable to win a tournament this year or hasn’t even reached a Slam semi in ‘06.
Venus is still lacking matches, her left wrist is still sore, and she badly needs to work on her serve before she splashes down in San Diego. She’s still very good and is always a threat to win every Slam she enters, but really, knocking out the rest of the top 30 isn’t going to get any easier as she gets older, because as with Roddick, there are plenty of players out there who can trade big groundstrokes with her. She needs to be a more consistent force at net and try to finally develop a dependable serve.

It was an odd feeling for the 26-year-old who was in a strange place — out of Wimbledon before middle Sunday with the rest of the once dominant American players. “It definitely feels really weird,” she said.

Those losses occurred on Saturday, but the day before, America’s now top ranked male player, No. 6 James Blake, suffered his worst defeat of the year, taking a major step backward in his 6-4, 3-6, 4-6, 6-1 6-0 loss to the Belarusian Max Mirnyi in the third round.

After the loss, Blake offered his usual it’s-not-the-end-of-the-world perspective. Granted, he lost to a good (but not great) serve-and- volleyer, but Mirnyi is a guy who can be passed if you can get in a decent serve or hit a groundstroke low. But when you completely disappear in the last two sets, you have no chance. When you cannot even smooth in a 3/4 speed first serve, you have no chance. When you lose all focus and all self-belief that you soon will be able to win a five setter, you have no chance. When you are broken at love to start the fifth, are throwing your racket and launching balls at the backstop, you have no chance.

As it stands, Blake is 0-9 in five setters, and he left Wimbledon without having reached the second week of any Slam this year, despite his ranking. He left England looking like a guy who shouldn’t have been seeded that high. Why? Not because of his style or weapons or movement on the surface, all of which are fine, but because he doesn’t believe he’s a great player yet. Until he does, he won’t be.

“I don’t think it’s unrealistic at all [for me to be expected to play up to my seeding],” Blake said. “I would like to do that. But with the depth of men’s tennis, it’s not easy to do. But it’s not unrealistic at all. I hope I can do it. But it’s not the end of the world. There will be other chances.”

The five-set bugaboo is killing Blake, and he can’t get his head solidly into a match when it goes up toward the top of the wall. This year, he’s lost three: to Fernando Gonzalez in Davis Cup, to Gael Monfils at Roland Garros and to Mirnyi.

“I lose ‘em. That’s the problem. I don’t know what it is. Today he played unbelievable and I missed first serves. Against Gonzalez [in Davis Cup], he played great. Against Lleyton Hewitt [twice at the U.S. Open], I was cramping. Against Stanislas Wawrinka [at ‘05 Roland Garros], I was cramping a little. Now I’m in great shape. I’m not worried about cramping. I don’t know what my problem is. I generally don’t think about it. It doesn’t keep me up at night. My time will come. Against Andre [the ‘05 U.S. Open], he played an unbelievable two points from 6-All in the breaker. There’s no one thing that I’m doing wrong in fifth sets. But if anyone can figure out one thing, I’d love to hear it.”

Here’s what’s not so hard to figure out: the U.S. will be competitive on the hardcourts this summer. Seven-time Grand Slam champion Serena Williams is scheduled to reappear on the hard courts and even though her long-term commitment to the sport is debatable, she’s usually ultra-competitive when she gets a hankering to play. Former No. 1 Lindsay Davenport will make another attempt at her elusive fourth Slam title and is always a wonder on hardcourts. Agassi will make a strident effort to be competitive, and although it’s improbable he’ll make another run at the U.S. Open, he’ll nearly kill himself trying to be a second week contender. Blake and Roddick always put up decent showings at home and Fish is due for a few months of solid yellowball.

But long term, the signs aren’t great. Agassi will retire at the Open, and Davenport is sure to follow with a year or so. Jennifer Capriati may never come back and Monica Seles is all but retired. That’s a combined 23 Slam titles from known closers out the door.

There are no surefire elite up-and-comers. Perry and Jackson aren’t exactly racing up the charts. A great career for Long Beach’s Vania King would be top 40. Taylor Dent is chronically injured and Robby Ginepri is in a deep mental funk that he may nevget out of. Of the other kids, only the 6-foot-6 Sam Querrey and the athletic Alexa Glatch have shown elite potential, but neither have put up the international results in the juniors that would point to a top 10 career.
In fact, if you look at the winners of the Girls 18s Super Nationals since Davenport won the title in ‘92, not one titlist has gone on to a top 20 career. The boys are even worse: no man since Michael Chang won the Super Nationals 18s in ‘87 has reached the top 20.

With that and many other things in mind, the USTA announced that it’s partnering with Florida’s Evert Academy to set up a year-round program for elite juniors that for the first time, will feature housing. A host of former stars and standout coaches are involved (Chris Evert, the McEnroes, Billie Jean, maybe Connors) and all seem to recognize that the U.S. is now behind the eight ball. Why? Because in this era of tennis globalization, the waves of super-hungry juniors coming from other countries are brought up in different cultures that don’t always value formal schooling and social interaction like the U.S. does (not that every American tennis parent does either). Many foreign kids are weaned on tennis, spend nearly all their time playing and rarely crack a book. By the time many of them are 14, they are playing full time on the ITF junior circuit, the proving ground for pros.

American affluence offers numerous alternatives to elite -level sports and the ferocious commitment to excel so prevalent in Eastern Europe seems rare in comfortable suburbs. Moreover, even though there are now a sizeable number of U.S. aspiring pros who are people of color (some who’ve come out of the inner city), but few are making a major dent either. “It’s much more competitive now than it was, but that’s no excuse,” said Davis Cup captain Patrick McEnroe. “To say that we should be happy where we are, I don’t think any of us feel that. We feel that we should be doing better. I’m just happy to see that the USTA is stepping up and being more accountable. We’ve got to do what we can. We’ve got to do everything. We can’t sit there and say, ‘Hey, someone makes better widgets now, so we should forget how good we can make our widgets.’ We’ve got to try to improve. There’s no guarantees, but if we don’t do something, it’s not just going to get better. We can’t just hope that Venus and Serena come out of the parks again in Southern California.”

While no program is a certain success, this one has tremendous potential because so many of the former greats are involved, and they know what it takes to win a Slam crown. Listening to King talk, it sounds like the legends are prepared to step up and help turn things around. “We’ve had it,” King said. “We want to win. You’re gonna see a group of us that are going to take the bull by the horns. We have to create a very hungry culture.”

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