wimbledon preview: juLY 2005

By Matthew Cronin

American tennis hasn’t been this shaky entering Wimbledon at any other time during the Open era.

After America’s utterly dismal performance at the French Open (with the brave exception of Lindsay Davenport), there are few reasons to believe there will be American grandeur on the grass.

Where have you gone, Peter Sampras?

For the second straight year, no U.S. male made the Roland Garros third round. At least in ‘04, dank weather and slow clay could be blamed. But this year, when there was still an American cadre to watch, temps soared to the mid-80s. However, when your main group is either hobbled physically or hurting mentally, you could have air-dropped a patch of parched grass into the Bois de Boulogne and it wouldn’t have mattered much.

After all, Agassi got injured again lost early, as did Mardy Fish. Taylor Dent didn’t even show and Robby Ginepri and Hugo Armando are now merely third tier players.

The weather should have benefited the last three American men in the draw, but Roddick and vets Vince Spadea and James Blake all went down to cramps, lack of know-how on clay and/or a lack of closing ability.

Spadea pulled a muscle and retired. Blake, who had won a couple of clay court Challengers and then qualified, looked like a feel good story. But after gaining a two set lead he withered in the heat and was out-muscled by young Swiss no-name Stanislas Wawrinka, 6-7(7), 5-7, 6-1, 6-3, 6-4. The Harvard product is bright, but is 0-5 in five-setters and his stamina and closing powers are suspect.

But not to worry, America, as usual, was hoping to play it’s A-Rod Card. After all, he’s a former No. 1 and the ‘03 U.S. Open champ. He won Houston on clay in April, competed pretty well in Rome and made a decent effort in a first round loss in Hamburg. He had a decent draw (and, what the heck, he was now wearing the French signature clothing line, La Coste.)

But this alligator just didn’t bite. Instead, Roddick ended up pushing the ball and blowing a 3-1 lead in the final set before going down 3-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 8-6 to an erratic, little-known Argentine, Jose Acasuso. “I knew coming in it was going to be the most challenging surface...for my game,” Roddick reflected. “It takes away a lot of my strengths and plays into a lot of other guys’ strengths. But I don’t know. That’s for you guys to figure out, right? ”

Right. Here’s the skinny: forget the surface. The reason why Roddick lost the match is because he’s lost his ability to slam the door shut in big matches. Sure, his backhand is a softball on clay, he doesn’t return with authority, his decision-making at net is still shaky and the big Texan doesn’t move that well on crushed orange brick.

But that’s not the reason he lost to Acasuso, who’s really not that good. He lost because he didn’t believe he could win.

Just check out Roddick’s last 10 months since he reached the Wimbledon final (where he a lost to Federer). There’s not much to show for it. The reasonably talented big Swede Joachim Johansson upset him in the U.S. Open quarters when he failed to step up in the fifth. He was butchered by Hewitt at the Masters Cup. He was out-gutted in the Davis Cup final by clay-savvy Rafael Nadal and Carlos Moya. He lost two other tight contests to Hewitt (at the Aussie Open and Indian Wells) and the deciding match of the Davis Cup opener to Ivan Ljubicic. (Screetch!) Yes, give him full props for his three medium-grade titles at Indy, San Jose and Houston, but he’s just not striking fear in the hearts of foes on any surface anymore.

Sad to say, the guy is blinking at crunch time when the going gets tough.

“I haven’t [closed] one in the last couple,” Roddick said. “The only thing I can do is keep working hard and try to turn the corner. It goes in streaks like that sometimes.”

It’s some kind of bad streak for Roddick, who’s a most likeable, honest guy with a ranch full of talent. He’s only 22 and just started working with his coach, Dean Goldfine, in December. But his progress has been slow and there is a chance that instead of having a Jim Courier-like legacy with four Slam titles and long stretches at No. 1, he might mirror Michael Chang’s career: one Slam title and a bunch of semis and finals.

If the U.S. men don’t find a magic potion on the grass of Queens prior to Wimbledon, the outlook could be bleak. Four guys will enter injured: Agassi (nerve injury), Spadea (stomach muscle pull) Fish (wrist injury) and Dent, who certainly has the serve-and-volley style to be effective, but who seems to get hurt every time he makes a run at a Slam. Fish — a good grass courter whose most consistent shot is his two handed backhand — played with a one handed slice in his French Open first-round loss. Unless Roddick steps up, the prospects look dim.

After all, the fellows have little time to right their ships if they want to avoid crashing into the London Bridge. “Right now, it stings. I don’t think any of us are happy,” Roddick confided. “We all have a lot of pride. It’s gotten taken down a lot in the last couple of years here, there’s no question. But I’ve been able to turn it around the last couple of years on the grass. I’ll try to do it again.”

Save for Davenport, the women weren’t much better in Paris. Capriati has been out all year with a shoulder injury and isn’t scheduled to return before August. The ever-perplexing diva they call Serena pulled out of the French with an ankle injury, but sources say the Aussie Open queen could have played, but didn’t think she was in good enough shape to make a run at the title. So does that mean tennis’ little Ms. Hollywood will deem it appropriate to show up in shape at Wimby for a crack at her third crown and the ultra ambitious defending champ Maria Sharapova. Maybe, but she’s only played a handful of matches since March and her rustiness could erode her game.

What about all those U.S. teens who are eager to challenge the already accomplished likes of Ana Ivanovic, Sesil Karantacheva and Nicole Vaidisova? Sorry, but there aren’t any. Vets like Meghann Shaughnessy, Lisa Raymond, Amy Frazier, or the once promising group of Angela Haynes, Shenay Perry and Jamea Jackson? Going nowhere fast.

More frighteningly, two-time Wimby champ Venus Williams is in the worst state of her 10-year career. After briefly giving hope in Istanbul by winning her first title in 14 months, she flamed out in Paris, collapsing in the third set to Karantacheva. Once dominant, she hasn’t won a Slam in nearly four years and consistently loses to elite players.

ESPN analysts Pat McEnroe and Mary Carillo say Venus has little chance of becoming a top-three player again. McEnroe notes the significant techical problems in her serve and forehand which have crept into her game in recent years, and key liabilities that break down under pressure and that foes repeatedly exploit.

And what of her coaches? Despite all of his eccentricities, Venus’ Pa, Richard, has long a been a good motivator of his daughters, while Ma Oracene tends to focus on the negatives and, according to one source, is wearing Venus down by constantly pointing out her mistakes. Many feel both sisters would gain mightily if they were to hear fresh new voices aside from their well-meaning parents (and occasionally Billie Jean King and Zina Garrison.)
Still, Venus insists, “I try not to listen [to others]. All those people who aren’t playing, I pay no mind...Whatever everyone else is saying is ‘blase espirit.’” Loose translation — bad karma for Planet Venus.

Still, by all rights, if Venus rushes the net enough and doesn’t play too wildly from the backcourt, she could be a factor at Wimby. But she’s been so inconsistent its hard to figure which Venus will show up: the one with the meandering attention span we’ve endured since Serena emerged at the top, or the cold-blooded killer who, at the ‘97 U.S. Open, faced down a chest-bumping Romanian? Venus hopes it’s the latter. But after her loss to Karantacheva, she indulged in the most sullen press conference in her career and made clear that no radical changes are forthcoming, telling us, “I’m just going to keep going on the way I’ve been going on.”

If that’s the case for the rest of the Americans at Wimbledon (especially if Roddick’s rockets again fizzle early or Lindsay can’t replicate the results she showed in France), you might want to start making your holiday plans for the second week.

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