Contenders in the Clay Nation

By Matthew Cronin

The Men
Rafael Nadal is all over this issue of IT. Why? Because he’s the world’s most formidable clay courter since Gustavo Kuerten. That makes him the clear favorite to repeat at Roland Garros, where if he wins, he will have won his 60th match in a row on clay, seven more than what the great Guillermo Vilas achieved. It’s impossible to hit through him early in points, and he passes remarkably well, so you have to be committed to a five-hour marathon if you are going to have a serious shot. There aren’t too many guys out there who are willing to climb into the forum with Rafa.

But No. 1 Roger Federer is one of them, and he nearly pulled off the feat in Rome, but once the match turned five hours and six minutes, he finally folded. Fed is attacking the net against Nadal much more than he used to (even on clay), so maybe just maybe, on a tremendous serving day, he can win the only Slam title that has eluded him. But he better stop throwing away match points.

There really are no other obvious contenders for the crown. Argentine David Nalbandian is the third main contender, but getting close at Slams is no real indication that you can actually win one. He does have the physical repertoire to do it though. Fellow Argentine and ‘04 champ, Gaston Gaudio, has been mediocre this year. Guillermo Coria is in a horrible, double-fault-laden slump, and the rest of that South American nation’s Delta force is on the doper’s suspended list (Canas and Puerta).

Other than Nadal, only Spanish 20-year-old Nicolas Almagro has made hay on clay this year. But David Ferrer can be potent. The French youngsters have been spotty, but don’t count the gregarious Gael Monfils out of a run to the semis. Backboard Russian Nicolay Davydenko is capable of another semifinal run, but he’ll need more spunk to go further. No. 5 Ivan Ljubicic just isn’t comfortable enough on dirt to do much damage, but Chilean Fernando Gonzalez does have the firepower and proper lineage to go deep. For some odd reason, the vision of Briton Andy Murray arriving in the quarters keeps entering our dreamscape.

And the Americans? Let’s raise our glasses if any man —- including No. 4 Andy Roddick or No. 7 James Blake — even reaches the second week. It’s been seven years now since any American male had a major impact in Paris, and that guy, ‘99 champ Andre Agassi, has skipped the clay-court season.

The Women
After another mediocre Slam performance at the ‘06 Aussie Open, the Russian women looked wanting. Not anymore. Four months later, they have combined to win all five of the Tier 1 events, with Elena Dementieva winning Tokyo, Maria Sharapova taking Indian Wells, Svetlana Kuznetsova capturing Miami and Nadia Petrova winning back-to-back Tier I’s on clay at Charleston and Berlin (plus her Tier II crown at Amelia Island).

So who’s the RG favorite? It still has to be two-time champ Justine Henin-Hardenne, who hasn’t won a clay-court crown this year, but did play outstanding in Fed Cup and reached a final. Unlike Petrova, she knows how to win Slams and absolutely loves performing on the Parisian stage. In fact, this year, when asked how badly she wanted to win Wimbledon — the only Slam crown that eludes her — she replied, “I will never sacrifice Roland Garros for Wimbledon. I just have a special feeling about Paris.”

The physically challenged Henin needs to come in very healthy though, or she simply won’t last. The rough and tumble Petrova has found a much higher level in her game now, and Kuznetsova plays the Belgian very tough, too. All three can win the tournament, as can No. 2-ranked and two-time finalist Kim Clijsters (if she convinces herself that she’s actually comfortable on clay) as well as No. 1 Amelie Mauresmo, who has no technical or physical impediments on the surface, just huge mental ones.

You should never count the relentless Dementieva out of any major, nor should you ever dismiss five-time Slam champ Venus Williams. The dark horse category includes the newly resilient Martina Hingis, the erratic Anastasia Myskina and resurgent Francesca Schiavone. Last year’s finalist, Mary Pierce, has barely played due to a foot injury. Lindsay Davenport has been hurt since early March, and the clay-challenged Sharapova is contending with a foot injury. The only kid with a decent second-week shot is Serbia’s Ana Ivanovic.

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