cover story: june 2005

By Matthew Cronin Roger Federer: The Swiss No. 1 has never played standout ball here, but has nailed down clay-court titles before. He’ll need to play more patiently than last year and make sure he gets into the net more. He’s sick of hearing how he can’t win RG, so he’ll be devastated if he can’t become the first since Agassi to win a Slam on all surfaces. Rafael Nadal: Owns five clay titles (two Masters Series) and a 17-match winning streak on clay. The 18-year-old Spanish wizard has the brawn and boldness to become the youngest winner since Chang, but he’s yet to show he has the lungs to last a full Slam. As Safin says, there are a ton of vets who’ll try to make him prove he can. Guillermo Coria: Had he beat Nadal in either the Monte Carlo or Rome finals, the Argentine would have assured his doubters that’s he’s all the way back after his choke to Gaudio in last year’s final. But he couldn’t close the door, which is why he’s now a notch below Nadal and Federer. Still has the ability to turn the corner. Gaston Gaudio: A good but not great year for the defending champ with three mid-sized clay titles. Hasn’t completely disappeared as some expected. With his shotmaking ability and desire, he’ll look to rediscover a little magic and charge hard for the crown again. Juan Carlos Ferrero After nearly a year of illness and injury, ‘03 champ is flashing big signs he’s healing. That’s hell for the rest of the field. David Nalbandian: Another man with an injury/illness bug. He’s gone far at every other Slam, and with his Munich title, showed he can be deceptive on clay, too. Carlos Moya: Hurting a bit, but is super-motivated to win his second RG. We haven’t seen the confidence he showed in Davis cup all year, but give the ‘98 champ a small chance at resurrection. Andre Agassi: Until 35-year-old reached the Rome semis, there was little reason to consider him. But he played Coria tough there and with the right draw and dry weather, ‘99 champ could inflict serious damage. Nicolas Massu: Hasn’t made a lot of noise since winning Olympic gold, but certainly has the tools and resume to sneak out a title for Chile. Marat Safin: Sure, he’s had a garbage clay season, but the Russian can be murder at the Slams, with or without his shorts. Upset Makers: The streaking Spaniard David Ferrer was a tempting top-10 pick, but he has 33 tournaments on board and must be wearing down. It’s hard to place second-ranked Lleyton Hewitt or No. 3 Andy Roddick in the top 10 because they haven’t proved they are true contenders on dirt — yet. There’s no way Tim Henman pulls a repeat of last year’s semis. True quarterfinal darkhorses are French phenom Richard Gasquet, Gael Monfils, three-time champ Guga Kuerten, Guillermo Canas, Nicolay Davydenko, Fernando Gonzalez, Fernando Verdasco, Dominic Hrbaty and oh, what the hell, James Blake.

Women Justine Henin-Hardenne: The little Belgian looked meek during the third set of her lost to Sharapova in Miami, but then ran off an imposing 17-match win streak on clay, including a Tier I title in Berlin (where she thrashed Maria). ‘03 champ is fit, motivated and powerful once again, but staying power is a question mark. Serena Williams: So she skipped almost every clay court event except Rome with a bum ankle. Didn’t she do much the same prior to the Aussie Open? No one goes to war at the majors like this seven-time Slammer, even on dicey clay. Lindsay Davenport: Skipped the red dirt warm-ups for R&R in anticipation of her last summer run. With the right draw and attitude, could do damage on a surface that’s she’s no fan of. She’s due one miracle. Kim Clijsters: Would have been a top-tier favorite until she hurt her hamstring in Berlin. But if it heals, Slam No. 1 is a real possibility. Anastasia Myskina: Defending champ affected by a bum shoulder, lack of confidence and personal problems. That’s no way to repeat, but intense Russian is capable of turning things around. Svetlana Kuznetsova: U.S. Open champ has had mediocre season, but has weapons to go deep here if she catches fire. Amelie Mauresmo: Even with Yannick Noah helping her, the Frenchwoman is a big question mark mentally and physically. Her nerves may betray her early again, but if she can reach semis, crowd could carry her to title. Maria Sharapova: As we saw in Berlin, the soon-to-be-No. 1 hasn’t yet developed the movement to go toe-to-toe with the elite on clay. But she’ll grunt loud and fight hard. Elena Dementieva: Believes she’s ready to grab her first Slam and with her improved serve, could out-leap the field. But still has a lot to prove mentally in Slam finals. Venus Williams: Since ‘01, no one has dealt with more nagging injuries than the four-tie Slam champ. Confidence is way down, but there will come a time when she takes off again — right? Upset makers: Veterans Patty Schnyder, Nadia Petrova, Silvia Farina-Elia, Francesca Schiavone, Nathalie Dechy, Elena Bovina, Mary Pierce and Flavia Pennetta are all capable of quarterfinal runs, but if you are looking for a surprise semifinalist, look to the younger set of Jelena Jankovic, Ana Ivanovic, Nicole Vadisova, Tatiana Golovin and Dinara Safina.

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