| March 2008 |
Defending champ Rafael Nadal says he’s never played better on outdoor hardcourts than he did in winning his first Pacific Life Open title last year by thumping Andy Roddick and Novak Djokovic for the crown. Then, the Spanish lefty stepped ambitiously inside the court and dictated, something he was unable to do in Australia, when he was knocked out in a flash by French up-and-comer Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who will be a closely tracked player in the desert this year. After the disappointment of his pummeling by the zoning Tsonga, it will be interesting to see how Nadal responds here. Will he play ultra aggressively and go for his first serves and forehands, or will he retreat into a defensive mode once again?
Djokovic sent up a flare to the tennis world last March when he reached the PLO final and then won Miami, but he’s come much further since then, reaching four Slam semis or better and taking out the fearsome Roger Federer and then Tsonga to win his first Slam Down Under. This No. 3 has all the makings of a No. 1 to be, but it’s a very long season and Fed and Nadal will have a lot to say about the upstart’s not-so-blind ambitions.
Those are the four main men to watch, but the Americans would also like to be heard from, as no stateside native has won the title since Agassi in ‘01. Top gun Roddick has never reached the final, but James Blake did in ‘06 when he was crushed by three-times champ Federer. The U.S.’ young and the bold would also like to pound their way deep into the draw, but Delray semifinalist Sam Querrey, Donald Young and John Isner have yet to show big-time stuff late at a high-level tournaments.
It’s more probable that the young 20-somethings, like ‘07 PLO semifinalist Andy Murray, who has won two titles this year, or the streaky but ultra-talented Frenchman Richard Gasquet, or the enigmatic Cypriot, Marcos Baghdatis, will make more major impacts.
Even though the Russians rarely roar in the desert air, it’s hard to overlook the fine play of Mikhail Youzhny this year, and of No. 4 Nikolay Davydenko on U.S. hardcourts in general. Nadal isn’t the only Latin with flair, and whether U.S. Open semifinalist David Ferrer of Spain peaked last year could be largely determined by his performance in the first quarter of ‘08. Let’s not forget, too, that Argentine Guillermo Canas scored two straight wins over Fed at the PLO and Miami last year (but he’s subsequently flamed out) and that some day soon, the savvy but surly David Nalbandian could get healthy for more than a month and regain the top five.
WOMEN
Anyone who saw Daniela Hantuchova win her second PLO last year knew she was capable of making a deep Slam run, but it took nearly forever for the slender Slovak to reach her first final four, which she did at the Aussie Open. There, she lost a heartbreaker to Ana Ivanovic. Even though she’s not ranked in the top five, Hantuchova is a top-shelf player once she roars down the I-10 and passes the windmills. She’ll go all out to defend her title, but is not the favorite.
That honor goes to two players — Aussie Open champ Maria Sharapova, the ‘06 PLO titlist, and Ivanovic, the Aussie Open finalist, who has as much as firepower as anyone on the planet but needs to put her versatility to better use.
Now that her shoulder appears healthy, expect Maria to make a strong run at the No. 1 ranking. She has few points to defend this spring and is playing with ambition and direction. Ivanovic badly wants a piece of her again. The last time the two crossed paths in the Aussie Open final, one was grinning ear-to-ear while the other was weeping with thoughts of what could have been.
This is just the type of Tier I crown that another Serb, Jelena Jankovic, should be able to win. She’s a much gutsier player than she appears when she’s moaning, groaning and laughing on court. But she’s lacking Sharapova and Ivanovic’s sliver bullets and will really have to hustle to prevail.
Sort-of-new mom Lindsay Davenport leads the U.S. charge as the Williams sisters (as well as top-ranked Justine Henin) are skipping the event. Davenport is a six-time PLO champ, but looked a step slow when Sharapova crushed her Down Under and a title run here would be truly extraordinary.
There are a few vets who are looking for a new day in the sun who could make some noise including ‘07 PLO finalist Svetlana Kuznetsova, two-time Slam champ Amelie Mauresmo (who doesn’t often play here) and the usually dependable Elena Dementieva.
The younger yet less established set who deserve a look include ‘07 Aussie Open semifinalist Nicole Vaidisova, France’s tenacious Marion Bartoli (the Wimby finalist) and Tatiana Golovin, the fast rising Pole Agnieszka Radwanska, the underrated Russian Maria Kirilenko, and the under-the-microscope Indian sensation, Sania Mirza.
